Is Berlin still poor and sexy?
Klaus Wowereit, then Mayor of Berlin, famously declared 15 years ago that his city was “poor but sexy”, making it Berlin’s best known slogan since “Ich bin ein Berliner”. Now growing as a cosmopolitan city, attracting investors and start-ups and building luxury lofts along the banks of the Spree, is it still true?
The first part of the question is definitely easy to answer. Astonishingly for a capital city, Berlin makes Germany poorer, says the Cologne Institute for Economic Research. Indeed, without Berlin, Germany’s GDP per capita would be 0.2% higher. By comparison, if Britain lost London, the average Briton would lose 11.1%; France without Paris would be 14.8% poorer. This is a unique situation among European capitals — but Berlin is not a regular city.
Rewinding before World War II, Berlin was both an industrial hub and one of the most populated cities in Europe, with over 4.3 millions inhabitants in 1939. A few years and a war later, the city was divided and had lost most of its firms and factories to West Germany (Munich and the Ruhr Valley mostly), who had little reason to come back after the reunification, almost 30 years ago — partly due to Germany’s federal structure, that doesn’t necessarily require a powerful capital city. By 1945, Berlin had indeed lost 35% of its population, and has been slowly catching up since the 90’s. The growth is now speeding up as the last census in 2017 estimated that 3.7 million people are now living in Berlin, making it plausible that it will reach the 4 million mark (no pun intended) earlier than expected (2035, according to the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, 2025 as per the Berlin Senate’s projections). What is interesting is that the city is gaining around 40 000 inhabitants a year and most of them — over 80% — are not Germans (source in German). Such a fast-paced growth, fed by new inhabitants with diverse backgrounds and needs, obviously has an impact on the city’s infrastructures. Berlin is indeed lacking hospitals, courts of law, schools and resilient transport infrastructures to say the least.
The transport infrastructures issue is actually a German problem, that Germany’s Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure addressed in 2016 by adopting a plan to spend 269 billion euros on construction and modernization of the country’s infrastructure over the next 15 years. The plan prioritizes repairing existing systems, with 70 % of the funds allocated towards maintenance. The case of Berlin is notable, as it had so many political consequences.
Going back to Klaus Wowereit, Berlin’s mayor from 2001 to 2014, who helped shape the city as Europe’s capital of cool and once rumored to run against Angela Merkel in 2009, saw his popularity levels plummet dramatically until he finally resigned, mainly over the Berlin-Brandenburg airport debacle, in 2014. Originally scheduled to open in 2011 and still unfinished today, the airport was supposed to replace the 2 existing ones, built during the Cold War and unable to offer the capacity the new capital city needed. The project suffered mismanagement, suspicions of corruption, technical and safety issues and is now way over budget — from €2bn to an estimated €7.3bn, that could rise further depending on how long it takes to finish, as each month costs an additional €9m to €10m in construction, maintenance, facility management and security services — a fortune for a “poor” city. The official target to put the airport in operation is now october 2020, but given its history, it could be postponed, again.
Moreover, the inner city transport infrastructure is not doing too well either and has been a major issue for the indebted city for quite a while. According to the Berlin Passenger Association (IGEB), the system is “in crisis”, with an increasing number of delays on U-Bahn lines, the local metro system, operated with 30-year-old trains on average — the age at which a train is normally retired. This is why Berlin has been facing heavy criticism — for years — for underfunding its public transport network, as politicians try to cut back on its huge public debt. It adds up to a further 26 % growth in passenger numbers expected by the authorities by 2030, which is not sustainable in the current situation.
At last, in the summer of 2018, a public transport plan for 2019–2023 released by the city transport department (good summary by The Local available here), revealed that a dramatic reversal is to take place as huge investments are planned in both modernizing and extending the infrastructure. Berlin is indeed finally revamping its ageing and strained public transport network.
One of the main proposals is aimed at buses, in order to offer a reliable and high bus frequency on every line in the city, with a bus circulating at least every ten minutes during the day, and 11 new metro bus and express bus lines. Also, every single bus operating in the city — 1 500 as of today — will run on electricity by 2030. This could require up to 240 km of overhead cables to power trolley buses, providing an additional source of energy to charging docks at bus depots. Tramways are not forgotten either as the city plans to build around a dozen new lines by 2030. Once a clear sign for which side of the wall you were on, it should change soon as the first lines to be built will connect eastern and western neighbourhoods — the first and long-awaited one linking Friedrichshain (Warschauer Straße) to Neukölln (Hermannplatz) expected by 2025 for instance. Other lines are also planned, this time entirely in the West, like the major route from Potsdamer Platz to Rathaus Steglitz. As for the U-Bahn, a few lines should be extended (U6 to Tegel Airport, U7 to the — hopefully — new BER airport, U8 to Märkisches Viertel in the North) but the plan lacks concrete proposals, which is no surprise as these projects are a lot more expensive and need financing first. However, longer — 50 meters instead of 40 for the longest ones today — and more frequent trains — every 3.3 minutes instead of 4 — are to be expected by 2023. Finally, the S-Bahn, Berlin’s suburban rail system, will be extended with a new North-South line, the first stage from Gesundbrunnen to Hauptbahnhof being planned in 2020 and the second stage by 2030.
That plan, focused mostly on trolley buses and tram extensions, is basically what Berliners have been waiting for for years, but unfortunately won’t happen overnight, as the underfunded transit system also needs a complete upgrade. Indeed, between 2019 and 2022, the BVG (Berlin’s public transport operator) will spend about €800m on the existing U-Bahn network. In order to renew the infrastructure, the BVG is closing whole sections of the metro for 2 to 20 (!) months. The map below shows the lines affected by the works and the stretches — in red — that won’t be operated.
For up to 20 months, commuters will have to make other arrangements. This is not unusual as it is impossible to carry out vital track and ballast replacement works without closing entire sections of lines. Each public transport authority defines its strategy in order to mitigate costs and the inconvenience for passengers. For instance in Paris, it was decided that they would shut down RER A’s — carrying more than 300 millions passengers a year — central section from 2015 to 2021, first in the summer and then only during nights and week-ends. It is obviously a mess as RER A is the backbone of the Paris transport system, but people do adjust and sometimes come up with new or alternative solutions. This is a time to get on a bike, try out an e-scooter — however ridiculous one might find them… — or even work more often from home. It is also when mobility start-ups should be innovative and test out their ideas, especially if the public transport authority can’t really afford replacement buses or service increase on other lines. In short, Berlin is still poor but should get more creative… therefore sexier!
Sources :
- Capital cities / Usually an economic driving force — Cologne Institute for Economic Research (Oct 2017)
- Press release / Repeated increase in inhabitants — Statistical Office for Berlin-Brandenburg (German — Feb 2018)
- ‘Poor but sexy is not enough’: the rise and fall of Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit — The Guardian (Sep 2014)
- Press release / Cabinet adopts 2030 Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan — Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (Aug 2016)
- Whatever happened to Berlin’s deserted ‘ghost’ airport? — BBC.com (Nov 2018)
- Nahverkehrsplan Berlin 2019-2023 (Berlin urban transport plan 2019–2030) — Berlin Senate Department for Environment, Transport and Climate protection (Jul 2018)
- Here’s how Berlin plans to radically overhaul its public transport system — The Local (Aug 2018)
- Bis zu einem Jahr Baustelle: U-Bahn-Strecken werden gesperrt — Hier droht Chaos (Up to a year of works, stretches of the U-Bahn will be closed — Chaos looms) — Berliner Zeitung (German — Dec 2018)
- RER A Summer work — 2015–2021: Line closure calendar — RATP (Nov 2017)
